HPC lease · deal model
WULF × Fluidstack — HPC lease value & cap rate
Value the WULF lease to Fluidstack — 457.5 MW of HPC/AI data center capacity on a 10-year contract — with an exit-cap DCF. Structural terms from SEC filings; model equity value, value per share, and cap-rate sensitivity.
WULF
Landlord
Fluidstack
Tenant
457.5 MW
Gross capacity
378 MW
Critical-IT load
10 years
Contract term
$6.7B
Total contract value
Aug 14, 2025
Announced
Landlord / Colo
Structure
HPC Lease CalculatorLandlord
Capacity
Gross MWassumption
PUEassumption
Critical IT MWderivedGross MW ÷ PUE
Contract
Lease Rateearns
$/kW/mo
per critical IT kWLease Termassumption
years
Rent Escalatorassumption
%/yr
blank = flat · typical 2–3.5NOI Marginassumption
%
typical 80–90 (tenant pays power)Capital & exit
Datacenter Capexassumption
$M/crit MW
typical $9–15MExit Cap Rateassumption
%
IG hyperscale 5.25–6.5 · colo 6–7.5 · implies 15.4xWACCassumption
%
discount rateProbabilityassumption
%
Shares Outstandingassumption
M
Probability-Adjusted Equity Value$1.26B
Implied Value / Share$4.89
Critical IT MW214
Year-1 Rent$372.9M
Year-1 NOI$316.9M
Exit-Year NOI Y10, escalated$316.9M
Total Capex-$2.57B
Yield on Cost12.3%
Discounted
PV of Contracted NOI 10 yrs @ 10.0%$1.95B
PV of Exit Value NOI ÷ cap, discounted$1.88B
Less: Capex-$2.57B
Equity Value$1.26B
Undiscounted (competitor-comparable)
Stabilized Value Y1 NOI ÷ cap$4.88B
Value Created vs. build cost$2.30B
Exit cap sensitivity — value / share
| Exit cap | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value / share | $8.15 | $6.23 | $4.89 | $3.92 | $3.17 |
Discounting costs $1.05B against the undiscounted stabilized view — that gap is what a cap-rate-only model hides.
Questions
How do you value the WULF lease to Fluidstack?
Start from the disclosed structural terms — 457.5 MW of gross capacity on a 10-year contract — convert to critical-IT megawatts (gross MW ÷ PUE), and apply a lease rate ($/kW/month) and NOI margin to get annual net operating income. The lease value is the present value of that NOI stream over the term plus the discounted exit value (exit-year NOI capitalized at an exit cap rate), less the capex to build. Dividing by shares outstanding gives an implied value per share. Enter the structural terms above into the calculator to model it.
What lease rate and NOI margin should I use for WULF?
Structural terms (capacity, term, PUE) come from WULF's SEC filings. This deal's actual lease rate and NOI margin — our modeled, SEC-sourced figures — auto-fill for subscribers: a Dimetrics subscription (from $29/mo) loads the whole deal in one click. On the free tier you source and enter those assumptions yourself; typical HPC colocation runs an 80–90% NOI margin (the tenant pays power) with lease rates quoted per critical-IT kW.
What is an exit cap rate and why does it matter here?
A capitalization rate converts one year of stabilized NOI into an asset value: value = NOI ÷ cap rate. The exit cap rate sets the terminal value in the DCF — exit-year NOI divided by that rate. Investment-grade hyperscale leases trade tighter (5.25–6.5%) than merchant colocation (6–7.5%). Toggle the exit cap in the calculator to see how sensitive value per share is to that single assumption.