AI Data Center & HPC Lease Valuation Calculator
Model an HPC/AI data center colocation lease the way a real estate desk would — critical-IT megawatts, lease rate, term, and NOI margin into an exit-cap discounted cash flow. Get equity value, implied value per share, and cap-rate sensitivity. Prefill the structural terms from SEC-sourced deals for the US bitcoin miners and neoclouds building this capacity.
Below is a worked example at the tool defaults.
Running your own scenarios is part of Plus ($29/mo). Deal pre-fill from SEC-sourced leases is an Analyst feature.
Questions
How do you value a data center colocation lease?
Start from critical-IT capacity (gross MW ÷ PUE) and the lease rate in $/kW/month to get contracted rent, then apply the NOI margin — in a triple-net colocation lease the tenant pays power, so the margin is high (typically 80–90%). That produces annual net operating income. The lease value is the present value of that NOI stream over the contract term plus the discounted value of the asset at exit (exit-year NOI capitalized at an exit cap rate), less the capex to build. Dividing by shares outstanding gives an implied value per share.
What is an exit cap rate?
A capitalization rate converts a single year of stabilized NOI into an asset value: value = NOI ÷ cap rate. The exit cap rate is the rate you assume a buyer would pay at the end of the hold — so the terminal value in the DCF is the exit-year NOI divided by that cap rate. A lower cap rate implies a higher price (a 6.5% cap is a ~15.4× multiple on NOI); investment-grade hyperscale leases trade tighter (5.25–6.5%) than merchant colocation (6–7.5%).
Why discount the cash flows instead of just capitalizing NOI?
Capitalizing NOI (NOI ÷ cap rate) treats the asset as if it were already stabilized and owned free and clear today. It ignores the time value of a 15–20 year contract, the capex you spend up front, and the fact that the exit value arrives years from now. A DCF discounts each year of NOI and the terminal (exit) value back at your cost of capital (WACC), then nets out capex — so it captures the drag from build cost and the delay to the exit. The gap between the two is real money a cap-rate-only model hides.
Can I value a site that has no tenant yet?
Yes — switch the picker from Deal to Site. A deal values a signed contract; a site values the capacity a company owns that is not yet contracted, prefilled with the uncontracted gross megawatts (total gross less what is already leased). Apply your own lease rate, term and margin to see what that capacity would be worth if it were leased on those terms. A site that is fully contracted shows 0 MW open and says which tenant holds it, rather than silently valuing capacity that is already spoken for.
What is critical IT MW and how does PUE affect it?
Gross MW is the total power drawn by the facility; critical-IT MW is the portion delivered to the servers themselves. Power usage effectiveness (PUE) is the ratio of total to IT power, so critical-IT MW = gross MW ÷ PUE. Lease rates are quoted per critical-IT kW, so PUE directly scales the revenue base: a 250 MW site at PUE 1.4 leases ~179 critical-IT MW.
Where do the prefilled deal and site figures come from?
Capacity and term come straight from SEC filings; the lease rate and NOI margin are our modeled figures. Every prefilled number is labelled with where it came from — disclosed by the company, derived from other disclosed terms, allocated by us from a portfolio figure, or a tool default — so a modeled assumption is never mistaken for a reported fact. Running the calculator with your own assumptions is part of the Plus plan ($29/mo); one-click loading of a tracked deal, or of a site's uncontracted capacity, is a Pro ($1,000/yr) feature.
Auto-fill any tracked deal or site with an MCP membership
Load a signed lease's capacity, term and economics — or a site's uncontracted megawatts — into the model in one click, across every tracked US bitcoin miner and neocloud.